Focusing only on consumer behaviour can make healthy diets more expensive and lead to unintended side effects

The recently released EAT-Lancet report once again highlights the importance of a balanced diet with more plant-based proteins and less meat. However, many of the studies behind it simply assume that consumers can and will change their eating habits overnight.

That assumption is unrealistic, say Wageningen researchers who contributed to the report. Large and lasting shifts in diets run counter to a global trend towards higher consumption of animal-based and processed foods. Policy can influence consumer choices, but it cannot dictate them.

In their study Exploring environmental and distributional impacts of different transition pathways for healthier and sustainable diets, the researchers used economic modelling to show that policy measures such as awareness-raising or price incentives are not sufficient to achieve such a major shift. In fact, some measures can even be counterproductive.

Policies that focus solely on changing consumer behaviour can actually make the recommended EAT-Lancet diet more expensive. When demand for fruit and vegetables grows faster than supply, prices rise and healthy food becomes less affordable. Combining taxes and subsidies can help offset these costs and keep the diet within reach. But funding subsidies on healthy foods by a carbon tax to reflect the environmental cost of food production may increase pressure on agricultural land, with potentially negative impacts on biodiversity.

Social effects also play a role. Greater demand for fruit and vegetables increases the need for labour in agriculture and horticulture, which in some regions could heighten the risk of labour exploitation, especially of migrant workers. 

The researchers argue that lasting change requires a food system transformation that looks beyond consumers to the entire chain: from production and trade to policy and the wider economy. A well-designed mix of measures, supported by careful modelling and real-world testing, offers the greatest chance of success. Tailored approaches for each country or region will be essential.

“There is no silver bullet,” says Marijke Kuiper, researcher at WSER. “A fair, affordable and sustainable food system demands smart combinations of policy measures, international cooperation and investment in innovation. And we must not lose sight of the people who produce our food. If they can no longer afford the healthy diets they help to make possible, we will have missed the very point of transformation.” 

• Exploring environmental and distributional impacts of different transition pathways for healthier and sustainable diets: an economic modelling study