Risk assessment in food safety

Food safety is an important issue and quantitative risk assessment is essential for taking well informed decisions. The food industry is constantly introducing new foods for which health benefits are claimed. On the other hand, consumer concerns about food risks are highlighted by recent programmes of measures of consumer organisations.

Science-based risk and benefit assessment

It is challenging to assess true health benefits and risks directly because of the complex chain from primary agricultural products (where most measurements are made) to total (daily) intake by individuals over all food products. Also, the health effects on individual consumers are often difficult to quantify precisely using epidemiological or toxicological data. Current risk assessment methodology is mostly limited to single substances and simple variables. There is insufficient integration of the exposure assessment and hazard characterisation in the risk assessment process. Nevertheless, risk managers have to take calculated decisions, taking all risks and benefits into account.

Therefore, science-based risk and benefit assessment and rational derivation of recommendations is one of the top priorities of European food policy, both in the areas of traditional substances (e.g. pesticides) as in the area of novel foods such as GMOs. More realistic assessments can lead to bring both health and economic benefits.

New science-based risk assessment tools

At Biometris we use probabilistic methods to develop new science-based risk asssessment tools. For a truly science-based risk assessment it is necessary to integrate as many aspects of the food chain as possible into a dietary exposure modelling framework. The framework should be able to handle irregular/limited data, to extrapolate to unobserved high-risk events, and to combine multiple risk (or benefit) factors. Furthermore, there is a need in toxicogenomics to find biomarkers of (internal) exposure and link these to dietary (external) exposure and to biomarkers of effects. In GMO safety assessment, further guidance is needed on the application of statistical methods. Development of data analysis and modelling approaches has been recognised as essential considering the exploding data quantities in the field of food safety.

Biometris focuses on case studies where practical risk assessment problems are to be solved, but the purpose is to develop general methodology.